I’m sure most of you doing the WSB tomorrow have already planned your routes, but I figured I’d give a migration outlook anyway.
Last night’s northeast winds kept migration along the east coast down to a minimum. That was not the case, however, for the central US where southerly winds along the leading edge of a cold front allowed for another evening of intense migration. Tonight will be our turn for some action. The forecast for Morehead City, NC is calling for east winds around 10mph, Norfolk, VA is expecting southeast winds around 5mph, and New Jersey is forecasting south/southwest winds around 5mph. Precipitation has been dropped from our forecast for this evening, but there’s still a chance of afternoon thunderstorms for tomorrow. Clouds will build in this afternoon, in conjunction with the wind switch, which should result in migrants flying lower and calling more this evening. All in all, tonight’s conditions are favorable for a good flight. With the lack of precipitation in the forecast, concentrations of migrants are unpredictable. The wind predictions of south/southwest increase the likelihood that Sandy Hook and Garret Mountain will both experience high densities of migrants tomorrow morning, although the more easterly winds predicted to our south tend to favor inland sites.
I will post the radar at 10:30pm this evening to give an idea if migration intensity along the east coast. I will not be able to post the radar in the morning since I’ll be birding my butt off.
Now, to whet your appetite for unlikely spring migrants: The east coast of Florida in the last week has seen at least four Connecticut Warblers, and on the west coast, one female Kirtland’s Warbler.
Hopefully I’ll run into some of you at Cape May tonight and tomorrow! Good Luck.