Sometimes you just wish for a straightforward answer, and of course, you get something a whole lot more complicated. That’s what I found tonight. I checked the local weather for Central Jersey: south/southwest winds, 6kts, clear skies…that sounded good. Then I checked the radar, nothing going on along the Eastern seaboard. Hmmm…”must be something with the winds” I think. So I check the wind plots and sure enough, there it is: Most of the winds at 850mb (roughly 2500 feet altitude- the altitude at where most nocturnal passerines migrate) along the eastern seaboard are actually blowing out of the north. The change to southwesterly winds aloft does occur around New Jersey, which does set us up for incoming birds, should they arrive from the more western states, which are experiencing more southerly winds AND some migration tonight (although they’re not major movements). The highest densities of birds are moving across Jackson, KY and points further west, with much lower densities moving over the Knoxville, TN and Roanoke, VA radars. It will be very unlikely that we’ll see the effects of this migration event in any obvious way, as the trajectory of the birds over Kentucky would take them toward the Great Lakes region. Tomorrow should set up better for east-coast migration, with the prevailing winds forecast to blow out of the south/southwest from New Jersey down to Northern Georgia. See you tomorrow! 🙂