The calm before the storm

Very little migration was apparent on the local radar last night, but don’t be fooled into thinking that this trend will continue. Here’s the radar from 7:00pm yesterday through 5:00am this morning.

Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.

Base Reflectivity image from Fort Dix Base Velocity image from Fort Dix Base Reflectivity image from Dover AFB Base Velocity image from Dover AFB Base Reflectivity image from Upton NY Base Velocity image from Upton NY Composite Base Reflectivity image from the Northeastern USA

On the regional composite you can see some moderate migration occurring to our west, with very little making its way into the mid-Atlantic. A small pulse is evident at the end of the loop suggesting that some birds did make it into southern and central NJ this morning, but the numbers were clearly low. This is more apparent on the Dover and Fort Dix radars where you can see the majority of these birds entering from the southwest and thinning out to the east. New York City, on the other hand, showed little to no migration on last night’s radar. This suggests that the eastern limit to migration last night was somewhere over the Garden State.

What you cannot see well from these images, though, is the heavier migration that occurred further to our west, along the frontal boundary, where the southerly wind gradient was considerably stronger. This gradient will be over the Mid-Atlantic tonight and promises to bring a good number of early migrants into the region by Friday morning. Conditions should be favorable for eastern migrant traps on Friday, as the winds overnights on Thursday will have a strong SW component. I, personally, am hoping for some birds to get pushed as far as Cape May- but so far two out of three models show winds being more southerly than westerly. Either way we could see some fallout type conditions as the front covers our region in the early morning hours on Friday. Keep an eye on the weather Friday morning, and if it’s raining near you- don’t write it off! Get out the rain gear an see what’s around… you might be pleasantly surprised.

Good Birding

David

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