Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.

Despite the widespread migration event, parts of the northeastern US have yet to experience optimal migration conditions. Last night appears to have been no exception, as strong westerly winds never quite gave way to more ideal northwesterlies along the eastern shore of lake Ontario and across New York State. That can be seen in the regional composite where central and western NY as well as western PA all show considerably less migration density than stations further north and east. That should change tonight, though, as winds over Binghamton and Albany turn northwesterly and lighten up a bit. Therefore, expect an even bigger push out of that region tonight.

As for the mid-Atlantic, the NJ and NY radars all show considerable densities heading into and out of the region on a strong NW->SE trajectory. Good numbers of birds could be seen heading down from New England and launching off of Long Island over the Atlantic, which should result in birds coming ashore along the Jersey coast this morning. Additionally, birds flying over New Jersey were being concentrated at the coast, which will surely benefit coastal migrant traps at first light. Surface winds are out of the WNW this morning at 10 – 20kts (with higher gusts) so pick a location where the winds will benefit you rather than hamper your ability to bird. I’ll be at the Zeiss Optics Morning Flight, at Higbee’s Beach, where northwest winds seem to favor the viewing of migrating birds- but the conditions will also be optimal for a morning flight at Sandy Hook, where I have less of a handle on the best vantage point under heavy winds (if any of you seasoned ‘Hookers have a tip- post it here!).

Otherwise, inland sites should see turnover of birds today, and those which provide shelter from the winds may experience good birding conditions today. Since wind speed and direction was the only weather factor with concentration potential, expect birds to be dispersed widely across the landscape except for at coastal locations, especially those with a south-facing geography. I’m off to the field, but I’d love to come back later today and read about your experiences, so please come back and let us know what you saw!

Good Birding

David

Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.

It’s always good to know what “no migration” looks like on the radar, just so you have a benchmark to which you can compare an actual flight. Looking at the NY and NJ radars, it’s apparent that something was in the air after sunset, but the reflectivity was 1) not nearly as strong as on a night with migration, and 2) the signal was ‘short lived’, in that it only appeared for a few hours, then rapidly disappeared.

Looking at the velocity we can immediately rule out migrating birds. All targets moving across the radar appeared to be moving with the wind, from south to north- not the general direction of fall migrants. Since the target velocities were quite high, the general impression might be that of migration. This is because we’re used to seeing birds migrate at velocities of 20-30+ kts (although usually the wind speed is only between 5 and 10 kts, and therefore birds are moving 15-20 kts faster than the wind). The wind speed last night was closer to 20 kts, and consistent with the velocity values depicted on the radar.

So given the lack of migration last night, we have a backing-up of migration-ready birds upstream of us. Looking at the regional composite you can see how this is going to play out tonight. Check out the frontal boundary that made its way east across the Great Lakes. You can see birds taking off almost immediately after the front passes. Well, that should be us over the next three nights! Expect heavy migration tonight and tomorrow night, with continued movements on Friday night as well… it’s about to get really birdy around here…

Good Birding

David

Good Birding
David

ps. while you’re in the reading mood, check out Tom Johnson’s writeup of today’s dike flight: http://cmboviewfromthefield.blogspot.com/ (you’ll have to scroll down past the hawk totals). The kid is as good with words as he is at identifying flybys at the Higbee dike.

Good Birding
David

Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.

West and southwest winds built in yesterday across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. I think the clearest evidence of the effect this had on migration can be seen in the regional composite. What I see when I view the loop is very light migration over most of NY and New England, with a larger flight over New Jersey, and much heavier migration from the Delmarva south and west (with another big flight also extending up into the western Great Lakes region). Southern New Jersey, then, represents the cutoff between little migration and what you would typically expect following a strong cold front. This is due mainly to the northwest winds which persisted to our south last night. The question now is how this will play out in terms of birding this morning.

Looking at the New York radar, it’s clear that little was moving last night, but what was on the wing appeared to be heading out over the Atlantic on stiff westerly winds. The Fort Dix radar showed higher densities of birds also on a similar WNW -> ESE trajectory, suggesting that birds were being pushed down along the east coast. Dover was clearly different, showing much more NW->SE trajectory at lower velocity, suggesting that birds were able to compensate for the wind direction given the lower wind speed over the Delmarva. So, expect birding conditions to be best in the southern half of the state, as most birds were moving downstate overnight with little replacement into the north. Coastal hotspots will be best today and the lighter winds should make it easier to find birds. Sandy Hook has good wind conditions once more (west at 9 kts) but I’d expect little new birds arriving today. Cape May will be a best-bet given its location at the southern tip of NJ and the favorable winds this morning. Still, will it be a better flight than yesterday?

Good Birding

David

Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.

These radar images are a little less straightforward to read than previous nights, simply because the winds were so strong and there still appears to be plenty of “stuff” in the atmosphere. Therefore, filtering all the other “stuff” can be quite difficult. In general, migration was heaviest along the central and Mississippi flyways, moderate in the southeastern US and mid-Atlantic, and slower around the eastern Great Lakes and northeastern US (where winds were strong and due west or southwest). For New Jersey this meant that more birds were moving out of the state than were coming in via central NY or eastern PA.

Looking at the NJ radar, though, it is clear that birds were migrating and that they were being blown considerably off course to the east. Expect coastal migrant traps to produce birds this morning, and expect birds to be returning to land for several hours after sunrise. The Cape May Ferry Terminal buoy is reading NW winds at 9kts, while the one at Sandy Hook is reading NW at 19kts (strong, but good). Windy conditions may make it hard to find birds today, but I have no doubt that the Locust Grove at Sandy Hook will be a good place to see birds coming in off the water. Similarly, the morning flight at Higbee’s should be hopping this morning, although the wind has the potential to keep the birds moving down low… but we’ll just have to see about that… (update: the bayshore is just too windy… inland or east coast sites might be better bets today. Find a windbreak!)

Good Birding

David