Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.

Most of the time I post the radar so that you’ll watch each loop and get a better idea of the relative densities moving overhead, and the general direction and speed of birds moving over the course of the night and morning. Today, though, if you look at the radar loops for NY, NJ and DE, what you’ll see is very little in terms of migration activity. What you do see is a large band of precipitation moving SW->NE which gives you some indication of why we’re getting shut out of the broader migration event. Look at the regional composite and you’ll see strong radar returns from the west and central NY radar stations… now THAT is migration. Compare that to the Fort Dix, Dover, DE and Upton NY radars where you’ll see almost no migration (very light densities, targets moving in a general SW->NE trajectory at the speed of the prevailing winds, etc.), except for a small ‘bleed over’ along the western edge of the radar’s view. Even there, though, densities are relatively low. I don’t expect much in terms of migrant concentration this morning, although with the persistent rain you never know what small group or interesting individual might decide to take refuge in your local patch. The best chance for any observable change in on-the-ground conditions will be along the western boundary of NJ where the ‘bleed over’ was somewhat apparent.

Looking ahead the forecast is pretty bleak through the weekend, although there appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel. Sunday and Monday nights look like they could produce the next big push of birds into the region as this system finally pushes offshore and high pressure builds in over New England. If all goes as planned (which rarely happens) New England should experience some strong NW winds on Sunday and Monday nights, effectively pushing all of those bottled up migrants to the coast and offshore, only to track south along the NJ shoreline into the morning hours. Some (hopefully many) of these birds will then head inland for shore on Monday and Tuesday mornings making for good conditions at coastal hotspots. But you know what they say about best laid plans… so we’ll have to keep an eye on the weather to see how it shapes up as we move through the weekend.

On another note, today is the second official day of the 2011 New Jersey Audubon/ Cape May Bird Observatory Avalon Seawatch and Tom Reed’s first day as the official counter! (yesterday was the first official day- and Tom’s first day off. Not to worry, his esteemed post was occupied by the ‘eagle-eyes-of-the-sea’ swing counter, Tom Magarian). So if you’re in the area, drop by and pay Mr. Reed a visit, and maybe bring him a hot cup of soup; it’s gonna be a wet one today!

Good Birding

David

Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.

 

Light migration was apparent over VA, Washington DC, western PA and NY, all of which was on a strong SE->NW trajectory. With little movement over NJ, expect conditions to remain stable from yesterday across the interior part of the state with some birds shifting locally to find better foraging habitat. Otherwise expect less birds along the coast as they head inland on SE winds, while those of you watching the ocean may be treated with the odd tern, phalarope, or a continuation of the jaeger show which has been keeping us quite entertained here in Cape May.

Looking ahead, it appears as if the southeast wind will continue at least through Thursday, but then should turn more southerly as we enter the weekend, just in time for the NJ Audubon/CMBO Cape MAYgration festival beginning today and running through next week! I’ll be leading a workshop (Fri and Sat) on using radar and weather to predict birding conditions, and there are plenty of other great forums, guided walks, and speakers to satisfy birders of every level and interest.

Good Birding

David

Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.

 

As you can see from the regional composite, most of the migration occurred over Eastern PA, the Delmarva and New Jersey with lesser concentrations over New York State. Some locally heavy thunderstorms moved across the western part of NJ and may have knocked down some of the migrants, so if your area saw heavy rain between the hours of midnight and 5:00am, you should consider checking your local patch this morning. Otherwise birding conditions in NJ should be best at inland hotspots today as the main trajectory of migration was from S->N from the mid-Delaware Bay up to the NE corner of the state.

Sorry for being absent for the last few days- but World Series scouting had me in the field at all hours. The results are in, and while we didn’t come close to garnering the Cape Island Cup (nor the Carbon Footprint Cup), we had an awesome time. In the end The Rutgers Scarlet Knight-Herons (this year’s team was myself, Ben Baiser, and Bill Lynch) pedaled 42+ miles and tallied 104 species of birds on Cape May Island over a period of 20+ hours. In doing so we raised money for the Rutgers Ecology and Evolution Graduate Student Association to fund graduate research projects. Our donation this year will be in the name of Charlie Kontos, one of our original teammates who passed away suddenly last year.  If you would like to support our cause, click here for information on how to donate. For those of you who have pledged support, a heartfelt thank you goes out to you from all of us. While our legs and butts are sore- our smiles are wide and our minds are full of the great memories of this awesome experience. Congrats to everyone who participated- and especially those who were able to take home the highly coveted awards. You deserve it!

Good Birding

David

Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.

 

High pressure over most of the southeast and Mid-Atlantic triggered another push to the north. Heavy migration was apparent heading up into New York State and beyond. Those birds heading across NJ appear to be heading more inland although there did appear to be a late push to the NE over Northern NJ last night. I didn’t see what the upper-level winds were doing last night so it’s hard to tell whether it was wind-driven or not- but either way birds did spread out over the northern half of the state. Migration was heaviest, though, over NY State which is consistent with our being past the peak of spring nocturnal migration. Oh how quick it comes and goes!

For the next few nights we have the potential for migration across the region with south winds forecast in the upper atmosphere and southeast winds at the surface. The mix of winds will mean that even coastal locations will see some new birds while the bulk of the migration will continue to head NNW. This should favor migrant hotspots from central to western NJ on Saturday. Looks like precipitation will strike South Jersey sometime in the day on Saturday but should be restricted to the south until later Saturday night.

Good Birding

David

Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.

 

Light and variable winds last night allowed a major flight of birds into the Mid-Atlantic and western portion of the Northeastern US although the low pressure system off of Maine continues to stifle any movement into the eastern half of the Northeast (see yesterday’s post for discussion). With easterly winds becoming more dominant, especially in the south, expect most migrants to have moved inland today. This is suggested on the regional composite where the migration cloud can actually be seen heading SSE->NNW, and is confirmed on the velocity loops for Fort Dix and Dover. This pattern is especially pronounced in the south, where east winds built in earlier in the night, and less so in the north which is still under light NNW winds (at least for a little while). If you look at the Fort Dix velocity image, though, you’ll see that Sandy Hook is only barely within the main distribution of migrants- with most birds heading almost due north over Staten Island and points to the west. I imagine that anyone scouting Sussex for the World Series should have a good number of migrants around Culver’s Lake today. Garret Mountain should also be good today, as it has been for the last week. On the Dover radar the main flight line appears to have been straight up the Delaware River, making any migrant traps around Pennsville, NJ an ideal place to be this morning. The National Park dredge spoils and Palmyra should be hopping today! I know my posts have a very local focus and I want to thank Jason in DC for his comment yesterday. It should be noted that the greatest number of migrants are actually passing west of NJ entirely, and the various radars to our west indicated a very heavy flight over the DC area into PA and up into NY State. Birders in those areas should be seeing lots of new birds at local migrant traps this morning. If you’re one of them (birder, not migrant trap), please drop in and let us know what the conditions were like.

World Series of Birding outlook: Right now mostly clear skies and light to moderate southeast winds are the story for the next three nights, so expect migration to continue through Saturday with most migrants on a SSE->NNW track. This means migrants at inland hotspots from Central NJ to the west, and should bode well for the full-state teams up in the Northwest corner at first light. The Delaware River, as today, should see a constant flow of new birds throughout the weekend. For those of you (us) limited to the coastal region, expect to have to work hard for your migrants on Saturday. As is most often the case anyway, breeding birds will be of the utmost importance along the coast during the big day.

On the topic of the World Series, I have some great news! An anonymous donor has covered our entrance fees for the event and any $$ raised will now go directly to supporting research grants for graduate students in the Ecology and Evolution department at Rutgers. Please consider supporting our Rutgers Scarlet Knight-Herons team by making either a per-bird pledge, or a single denomination donation. Every little bit helps- so give what you can and support graduate research in New Jersey. Thanks in advance! More information can be found here.
Good Birding

David