A late trickle and tomorrow’s forecast

Last night and early this morning we saw the latest cold front move over the region and out to sea. While migration was apparent throughout the evening over western NY, the east coast experienced only a small 9th-inning rally once the winds turned WNW today. Here’s the radar from 7:30pm last night through 5:30am this morning.

Frames are every 1/2 hour. Click on the thumbnail to view the full-sized animation.

Base Reflectivity image from Fort Dix Base Velocity image from Fort Dix Base Reflectivity image from Dover AFB Base Velocity image from Dover AFB Base Reflectivity image from Upton NY Base Velocity image from Upton NY Composite Base Reflectivity image from the Northeastern USA

Check out the regional composite where you can visualize the migration event occurring early in the night to our west, and moving eastward behind the passing frontal boundary. Looking at the individual velocity loops for DE, NJ and NYC you can seen that for most of the night target direction was SW->NE. As the front pushes offshore, though, you can see the trajectory of those targets turn clockwise until all are moving from the NW->SE. Looking back at the reflectivity you can see that the early images are made up primarily of dense precipitation, while the later ones (where the direction of movement becomes NW->SE) are dominated by light to moderate bird migration.

Birding-wise, this migration event is probably too small to produce any significant concentrations of birds, although because of the NW nature of the winds expect coastal migrant traps to be the best bet for picking out new birds. I expect Cape May to harbor a few new arrivals this morning… although, if you’re planning a quick work-week excursion, I would head for the coast tomorrow morning when a much larger flight is expected. On that note, stay tuned for a twitter update tonight as this should be the first big flight of the season!

Good Birding

David

This entry was posted in Birds, Fall Migration 2011, Forecast, Migration, Migration Radar, NEXRAD Migration Study, Weather. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to A late trickle and tomorrow’s forecast

  1. Sandra Keller says:

    Exceedingly slow at Wheelabrator in Gloucester County this morning!
    1 Yellow-Bellied Flycatcher
    1 Yellow Warbler
    1 Magnolia Warbler
    3 Redstarts
    That was it migrant wise!

  2. Cindy Smith says:

    Spent the weekend on the Great Sacandaga Lake, in the Adirondaks. Cold front moved they last evening. Spectacular morning. Sooo many warblers in the woods moving thru.
    I agree, that Tuesday morning at Cape May should be good. Migration picking up!
    Hoping to get to the Cape tomorrow or Wednesday.