UPDATED @ 10:20pm
The winds are out of the west at 5kts over our area. Birds are moving to the northwest of us, as expected, but not much happening to our north or over our area. Significant birds are moving southeast across the great lakes and over Buffalo, NY, as well as over the entire eastern seaboard up to (get this) Virginia! The birds leaving the great lakes region are moving at a trajectory that would likely bring them south of us before hitting the coast, unfortunately. We’ll have to see in the early morning if birds were able to leave points north of us after the frontal passage. Unfortunately, if things stay constant, we won’t likely get a big push into our area tomorrow morning…I’ll post an update around 6am.
Earlier report:
The winds are already out of the SW over our area, and are expected to switch west, then northwest as the front passes and high pressure build in behind it. This will be a night to watch the regional radar, because it looks as if the front will still be west of the northeastern states by morning, precluding many of the northeastern birds from migrating tonight (areas on the eastern edge of the front will be experiencing southerly winds in the range of 10 – 20kts). We would still expect a good influx of migrants from the areas directly north and northwest of us (from NY, the Great Lakes region, etc.). This scenario could set us up for a double header Saturday morning, with the birds northeast of us leaving Friday night after the front has cleared the region and their local winds switch out of the northwest. Since the front will be very near the coast tonight, assuming good numbers of birds migrate over our area, coastal locations could be great tomorrow morning. Alternatively, if the front does not clear our area (including the areas north and west of us) we may not have such a strong movement of birds. West winds are predicted for most of the night, which if birds are moving, should favor the coast as well. Oooooohhh, this is so exciting (sorry, I just had to convey my emotion a bit) :). I’ll post the regional radar tonight around 10:30pm.
DL
3 responses to “Front likely to push through tonight”
I guess I don’t understand – if the front doesn’t reach the coast, and in fact there are southerly winds along it, how would that make the coastal locations good?
Susan,
You’re right: if the front doesn’t clear the coast, then there will be strong south winds along it, and it would likely preclude birds from making it that far…probably setting up a stopover more inland. Currently, though, the winds in Cape May have switched to out of the west, while the winds at Asbury Park are strong out of the south…so I think this front is moving along as scheduled and should be offshore sometime after midnight, or at least before sunrise (the critical point).
cheers
DL
Well look at that…the Asbury Park winds just switched out of the SW….crazy stuff! 🙂