To migrate, or not to migrate…


…THAT, is the question.

There has been a whole lot of migration going on over the past three nights along the Mississippi and Central Flyways. I have compiled three composite images, one per night, for the entire US. These run from sunset to after sunrise for each day. The files are large, so they may take a long time to load, but they sure are impressive when they do. You can see the front moving eastward and the precipitation being carried northward on its leading edge, which accounts for all the bad weather we’ve been experiencing up here.

National Composite of NEXRAD base reflectivity for Sept. 12 - 13, 2006 Base Velocity image from Fort Dix
National Composite of NEXRAD base reflectivity for Sept. 14 - 15, 2006

Now, back to the question of whether birds will migrate along the eastern flyway tonight. I’m going to say YES. The reasons I think they will are several. 1) the forecast winds at 800mb are out of the NE, while those on the surface are forecast from the N to NE. 2) While the skies are not forecast to be clear, the chance of precipitation tonight is only 40%. 3) Birds will migrate through rain if wind conditions are optimal. 4) There are lots of birds waiting to migrate tonight, based on the great movements seen further to our west (although the MS and Central flyways do carry more birds regardless). So, we’ll have to wait until about an hour after sunset to really tell what’s going to happen, but I think there’s a good chance the floodgates will open tonight.
Until then, good birding.

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